Three interacting dynamics define the current Nvidia read in Signwl's briefs: the live B200 demand-pull squeeze, the artificial suppression of H100 depreciation it is causing, and the multi-quarter substitution arc accelerating around the edges of Nvidia's share.
B200 in real demand-pull scarcity. Across late-May briefs: B200 spot in us-ohio printed $6.05/hr (+136% over 30 days), corroborated by Oregon at $4.85/hr (+84% 30d), with on-demand prices flat in both regions. This combination — rising spot, flat on-demand — is the textbook signature of demand-pull scarcity in a capacity-constrained pool, not a supply ramp. AWS is the only public B200 quoter; Azure and GCP have not listed B200 at scale. The supply ramp is happening (IREN's $3.4bn Nvidia deal deploys air-cooled Blackwell at 60 MW in Childress, Texas from early 2027) but it has not yet reached the spot market.
H100 depreciation suppression — the closing window. The second-order effect of B200 supply constraint matters more than the price level. The H200→B200 generation-gap depreciation rate has compressed to 2.96% annualised — implying an implausible 34-year useful life vs the 18–22% rates seen at V100→A100 and A100→H100 generation breaks. H100 is being held up by the same dynamic; it is depreciating materially less than discounted cash flow models imply. When B200 capacity catches up (3–6 months on most realistic supply paths), both curves will reprice downward together.
Custom-silicon substitution is now a tape signal. Trainium spot in us-ohio printed +332% over seven days; Inferentia2 in Stockholm +153% in a single day; Anthropic's $21bn TPU order (Broadcom/Google, 2026–2027 delivery); Meta's extended Broadcom MTIA partnership; AMD MI450 / Helios shipping H2 2026 with Meta + OpenAI as 6 GW customers. Each individually is a small share; collectively they imply a multi-quarter slice of training and inference demand absorbing into non-Nvidia silicon. Nvidia's response — Bedrock-comparable cost economics, performance leadership, and CUDA stickiness — remains formidable, but the directionality is now visible in the prints rather than the guidance language.
The composite picture: a name with extraordinary near-term scarcity rents, structural risks emerging at the 12–24 month horizon, and an installed-base economics dynamic that produces an unstable equilibrium between Nvidia and the neocloud names dependent on H100 not depreciating.